Models of analysis and forecasting of monetary policy parameters

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dc.contributor.authorKramar, V.
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-26T16:27:09Z
dc.date.available2021-03-26T16:27:09Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionKramar V. Models of analysis and forecasting of monetary policy parameters / V. Kramar ; supervisor A. Pilko // Black Sea Science 2020: proc. of the Intern. Competition of Student Scientific Works / Odessa National Academy of Food Technologies; eds. B. Yegorov, M. Mardar [et al.]. – Odessa: ONAFT, 2020. – P. 130–141 : tabl., fig. – Ref.: 24 tit.ru_RU
dc.description.abstractAn important prerequisite for the implementation of effective monetary policy under the regime of inflation targeting is the ability of the central bank to predict the basic parameters and to simulate different scenarios of monetary policy development adequately. The study shows the results of the analysis conducted of the advantages and disadvantages of existing approaches that solve the task of modeling and forecasting monetary policy parameters. The results of this analysis testify to the inability of the dominant approach to modeling and forecasting monetary policy settings effectively to solve the set tasks. On the basis of quarterly information for 24 reporting periods (since 2014), a methodology for modeling the dynamics of the main parameters of the NBU's monetary policy, which allows to identify the direction and lag of cause and effect relationships between them were proposed. The developed model includes 10 equations and 2 identities, which has 24 variables, including 12 endogenous, 8 exogenous and 4 auxiliary variables: trend and seasonal dummy variables. Based on the model developed, calculated indicators of the tightness connection factor of the variable with the result in each equation, namely the coefficients of elasticity, the beta-coefficients and indirect beta-coefficients. Forecast for the next six periods of such endogenous variables of the model developed as: NBU discount rate, absolute increase of the consumer price index, real GDP per thousand people, real exchange rate was calculated. The proposed methodology can form the basis for supplementing the existing system of analysis, stress testing and forecasting of the state regulatory center as well as interested organizations.ru_RU
dc.identifier.urihttps://card-file.ontu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/17027
dc.language.isoenru_RU
dc.subjectanalysisru_RU
dc.subjectmonetary policyru_RU
dc.subjectthe discount rateru_RU
dc.subjectsimultaneous modelru_RU
dc.subjectmacroeconomic modelru_RU
dc.titleModels of analysis and forecasting of monetary policy parametersru_RU
dc.typeArticleru_RU
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